I've found an interesting pattern in this article. What do you think?
As if on cue, from 2009 to 2012, 2013 to 2016, and 2017 to 2020, bitcoin rose to its peak, falls down hard, recovered roughly to the mid-point of the previous peak before the next halving event and then rose to its next peak.
Here is a quantitative summary of the key figures:
Peak 1 at $32 and halving (2012) at $12.5, or 39% of prior peak.
Peak 2 at $1,179 and halving (2016) at $665, or 56.5% of prior peak.
Peak 3 at $19,764 and halving (2020) at $8,977, or 45.5% of prior peak.
Taking a closer look at these figures highlights another trend few others have noticed.
The ratio of Peak 1 to Peak 0 (50 cents in 2010) is 32/0.5 = 64.
The ratio of Peak 2 to Peak 1 is 1,178/32 = 36.81.
The ratio of Peak 3 to Peak 2 is 19,764/1,178 = 16.77.
Each new ratio is roughly one half of the previous one. This implies the next peak for bitcoin could be 19,764 times 8, or $158,112.
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