Crypto 360°

Just made a desk light 🤩

submitted by /u/UsmarineOO7
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The possible scenarios on November 15

tl;dr The situation is messy and nobody really knows what will happen. Actually it might be unclear for a while with one or even multiple reorgs.

(I'll call the chains "ABC" and "BCHN", since it's unknown who will retain the BCH ticker).

The ABC chain will exist for sure unless 0% miners mine it, which seems highly unlikely. How much value the coin will have is unclear. It's also unclear if 8% of the coinbase of a coin with possibly much lower value will be enough to support development.

BCHN chain will exist only if it has more than 50% of the hashrate, which now seems likely. But signaling for BCHN isn't the same as actually mining BCHN, so it's unclear how much hashrate it will have. Also, if BCHN starts with >50% hashrate and later has <50% and ABC becomes a larger chain than BCHN, then BCHN chain will reorg to ABC chain, which means basically stopping to exist. So BCHN might exist for a while then stop existing. Then BCHN can start existing again if it has >50% hashrate again. So this can happen over and over.

A lot of the current miners are swing miners who also mine BTC and/or BSV. Signaling today for BCHN might be a bluff for some of them. On November 15 the cards will be on the table, and we will finally know.

To complicate things further, a large miner. or several of them, could make BCHN go above 50% of the hashrate, and then later below 50%, forcing a reorg of the BCHN chain onto the ABC chain, and make money with it.

There's no replay protection between the 2 chains, so sending coins on one chain will very likely replay the same transaction on the other chain.

submitted by /u/gasull
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/jk5kte/the_possible_scenarios_on_november_15/