The SEC has now finally approved a Bitcoin Futures ETF. However it seems like the sentiment about this in terms of price movement for Bitcoin is not where it should be. People think that purchases of a futures ETF will have almost no affect on the spot price of BTC, which is absolutely untrue.
Let me elaborate, as this might blow your mind.
Technical Analysis
When a futures ETF launches, there will be way more buying than selling pressure. We can see this already, because futures on exchanges trade for a much higher price than BTC spot. On FTX, the BTC-0325 Future is trading at 65'600$ while BTC is trading at 61'080$.
When futures ETFs launch, they too will reflect higher prices than the Bitcoin spot price. What will risk-averse, smart investors do? They will short the high ETF price, BUY BTC spot on a lower price and pocket the difference. Currently doing this on an exchange would yield a 7.5% risk-less return within the next 6 months.
ELI5?: I will now spot-buy Bitcoin for 61k and sell it to you for 65k BTC on March 25th. I can arrange and fix this sales price by shorting the ETF now. I have made 4k of secure profits.
As you can see in this example, the availability of a futures ETF directly affected the spot demand of BTC. With more and more ETFs launching and trillions of dollars being directed towards them, price spreads will increase and so will the buying pressure on spot markets. This is huge and many have yet to understand this.
General Analysis
The approval of a Bitcoin Futures ETF on Wall Street will legitimize the asset once and for all in the US. It brings the credibility of crypto to a new level for many higher-ups in finance.
Also, regulation is still one of the biggest risks we're facing. The further crypto can spread, the harder it will be to regulate crypto in a way that is harmful to the financial industry. And an ETF is doing exactly this, no matter whether it is futures-based or not. You cannot take down something that is so deeply connected to the economy. Once people allocate their 401k, IRAs etc. regulators will be even more weary of hurting the crypto space.
Summary
The launch of a US futures based BTC ETF is huge, both from a technical and general perspective. It is untrue that it won't directly affect spot prices and this will soon become clear to us all.
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