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Monday, 6 December 2021
Dip Explanation, a cautionary tale…
Meet Bob. Bob is not smart, but he bought Bitcoin when it was $30k and feels really smart now. He has enough paper profit to buy a Corolla, but he is holding out for that Lambo at Xmas that PlanB promised him.
Meet Jim. Jim dismissed Bitcoin as a Ponzi scheme when it was $30k and didn’t buy. Jim regrets it every day and has massive fomo, but being smart Jim finds he can borrow Bitcoin for 0.01% per day from the Bobs of the world so he borrows a ton. He then sells the coins into an illiquid order book at midnight on a Friday EST. The price action takes out a cascade of stop loss orders sending the price down 20%.
Faced with losing his Corolla, Bob sells his coins. Jim buys the coins at the 20% discount, returns the borrowed coins and fills his own bags.
Jim repeats this every few weeks until there are no Bobs left with Bitcoin.
Eventually, Bitcoin reaches Bob’s Lambo price and Bob fomo buys some coins from the profit taking Jim. Bob never gets his Lambo, Jim does.
Don’t be Bob.
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