I've been monitoring BTC chain last 2 weeks and found something interesting. When blocks are solved, they would be solved pretty fast, mostly under 7 minutes. But when the chain stops moving, time to solve a block is around 20 minutes to 45 minutes.
I know everything can happen in terms of probability, but this happened quite often, so I don't believe it's not an intentional action. There're 2 main reasons that most miners may decide to "rest" at a specific time:
- Make all transactions stuck, so people have to increase their fees (if they are in hurry). Last 2 weeks, there were at least 2-3 times mempool reached 25k transactions (excluded the time when BTC surpass $10k) and the fees were insane.
- Make the diff remain "low" enough. So they can maintain a good revenue/electricity_cost ratio. Assumes when they stop mining BTC, they switch to other coins.
By one action, they'll have better rewards on the next few blocks and don't change the diff of next epoch.
It's kinda a type of game theory that when you stop mining BTC at a specific time you have to be sure other miners stop mining BTC too. My gut feeling is telling me that it's true. Because speaking of a long-term plan for mining bitcoin, this strategy is the best.
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/h023ew/big_miners_make_btc_blockchain_stalled/
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