What will happen?
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/il1zvs/if_one_day_bitcoin_core_developers_announce_the/
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We often say the inflation of the US dollar will push more $USD into Bitcoin, i.e., BTC as a hedge against inflation. But the opposite is also true: when fiat currencies deflate (the buying power increases) it is because fiat savings are no longer paying enough interests. In times of deflation, people are taking their money to the stock market, and to Bitcoin.
Deflation means prices are dropping. And deflation means people will want to wait to buy new goods and services hoping that prices will continue to drop further.
So in Europe, the central banks are already speaking of the "Deflation Ghost", which may kill the economy (grind it to a halt). Have a look at our stock markets and see how that world is completely disconnected from reality. Our monetary-financial system is running on its last reserves. Negative interests for saving accounts have already been introduced for the wealth with savings over $250,000. But negative interests will be introduced for Joe Schmoe and Suzy Homemaker soon as well. Namely, to push people to spend more (to counter the deflation.)
Worlwide, debts are increasing and Central Banks, including the American FEDeral Reserve are afraid to "normalize" things since the last time they tried, stock markets collapsed. As a consequence: Central Banks are afraid to normalize and stocks are soaring to the moon, because everyone who still has money in the bank is FOMOing. Stocks aren't soaring because those companies are worth so much but because money isn't generating interests in the savings account anymore. It no longer pays to keep money in the bank.
Stocks are turning into a giant mega bubble (it already is) and sooner or later it is going to burst. Then, money won't flow back into money but into scarce stuff like bullion and bitcoin, whereas the value of FIAT is going to zero.
Time will tell.
It's been a long time for me in Bitcoin. I know what this subreddit thinks will go down in November, and I don't think it's going to pan out the way we want.
Convince me I'm wrong about any of the following.
The market doesn't care about ideology
See BCH vs BTC, and see BSV for example. If satoshi's vision was important it would've won because that was their whole premise. If being more de-centralized and having bigger blocks was all that mattered, BCH would've won.
Passion is important, but money talks
Believe me, I'm all for the philosophy of Bitcoin Cash. However, the masses do not care and just want a product that is simple and that works. Even WITH funding, it's not a guaranteed path. Relying on donations is not sustainable.
The non-IFP services/businesses will be replaced
Of course I don't want to see people shutting down their services or leaving crypto, but if you have someone offering X for free (through altruism or whatever), you can find someone to build the exact same thing if you offer them $100,000+/year. In fact, I'd argue it would end up being more reliable and polished.
ABC will retain the ticker
I see all the hash posts, I see all the community members banding together, but the exchanges are in charge of tickers. I just don't see the scenario (even with minority hash), that BCH is awarded to the non-ifp crowd. Especially if it requires upkeep/maintenance to do so.
the mining tax doesn't break "Nakamoto consensus"
The DAA was a core change that we have no issue with. Why? Because all the hash and miners agreed to it. Even with a split, the people that remain on ABC have agreed to the ruleset of giving 8% of the coinbase.
Bitcoin Cash is not dead
Bitcoin Cash is the idea of continuing the Bitcoin experiment of trying to make decentralized P2P cash. I don't think it dies this november even if ABC wins.