ABC vs BCHN: Why ABC guaranteed to lose eventually

Without getting into the politics of it all, here's some analysis, noting that:

• An ABC block is a valid BCHN block.
• A BCHN block is an invalid ABC block.

Scenario:

1. ABC has majority hash-power at hard-fork: BCHN nodes will still track the ABC chain whilst their minority hash blocks will be orphaned. Outcome here is elevated orphan rate, no split. However, should ABC ever lose majority hash-power, even for just 10 blocks, then an irreversible split occurs as per (2).
2. BCHN has majority hash-power on or at any time after hard-fork: ABC/BCHN split with no replay protection.

At this point, it's looking like (2).

Also, if Corey's from the north and Calvin from the south think they can team up for one final attack on Bitcoin and artificially pump ABC hash-power, it will be a complete waste. This is because as soon as their artificial hash-power ends, scenario (2) occurs.

Their only strategy would be to waste money propping up ABC hash-power long-term to orphan BCHN blocks to force them onto ABC nodeware. In this highly unlikely scenario, BCHN could be updated easily to replicate IFP coinbase output just to stop orphans but then switch off these IFP outputs at non-deterministic block numbers. This can be done by some rule based on last block-hash. This way, the fake ABC hash-power would need to be permanent, because as soon as it turns off and the non-deterministic trigger fires, the BCHN majority will start producing non-IFP blocks and split as per (2). Only 10 blocks required to seal a split, a time period too small for the fake hash-power infrastructure to be turned on again.

However, it's far more likely that on hard-fork day should ABC be higher in hash-power, or the ABC/BCHN hash-power be comparable then someone like /u/memorydealers will artificially pump BCHN hash (for 10 blocks) to seal the split.

Doesn't matter which way you look at it, ABC is done -- unless of course they get social consensus from community to adopt their change legitimately, which they have totally failed to do. ABC has lost already.

submitted by /u/HermanSchoenfeld
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/inywt7/abc_vs_bchn_why_abc_guaranteed_to_lose_eventually/