I consider myself very lucky. I bought several properties over the last 8 years. I did NOT understand the money supply going up, but I did understand that the low rates made payments affordable (while many argued bubble I knew the payment is what mattered).
I remember a condo I looked at (and ended up buying) was bought at the bottom by the seller who had an all in payment of $1300 (hoa, taxes, principle/interest). That condo was renting for $1500. Literally the condo paid for itself AND generated cash flow. The market for that condo rent is now $2100 a month.
While I got lucky, I will tell you that I had many friends that had a chance to buy and didn't. Their general response was "it's going to a crash". What the truth is that they put in little research and were frustrated because they thought they missed out. Life was fine for them, and it still is-but they missed out on massive financial gains. Many of the highest educated and also some of the highest IQ people I know have way less wealth than people I think are dufuses. Why did the dufus get rich? The dufus was willing to listen. Just like I missed out on bitcoin in 2015, and many of my friends missed out on housing, I implore you to listen.
The moral: Don't be jealous. Put in the work and make a decision. Don't make a decision off one post, one article. Read, listen, ask questions.
The reason I write this is because it helps me make sense. If you are not buying bitcoin, I hope you have a very good reason. I hope you have a reason to believe rates will normalize, a reason to believe the fed will stop supporting markets, a reason to believe worldwide adoption will slow down/go stagnant/reverse course, a reason to believe the fed's balance sheet will get paid down, a reason to believe debt to gdp won't keep climbing.
I hope you have a reason to believe that it will stop at 1 S&P 500 company. I hope you have a reason to believe wealth inequality goes from widening to lessening (that the increased taxes really stop this-ha!). I hope you have a reason to believe that more billionaires will not join, and a reason to believe wealth management firms throughout America, including ones in the heartland and very conservative, will stop dipping their toes into GBTC. I hope you have a reason to believe our world is not going to continue to go digital, and a reason to believe that governments in the first world will outlaw it even though the trend is strongly showing adoption/regulation/acceptance.
I hope you have a reason to believe that most new cell phones in the next 3-5 years will NOT come with digital wallets, and a reason to believe that the large banks will not offer bitcoin services to their customers even as they see coinbase lighting up bank statements. I hope you have a reason to believe the world will go back to the way it was, though history shows this never happens.
The reason most will miss this is pride. People think they are smarter than they are and better than they are. As I reflect back on housing-DROP YOUR PRIDE AND LISTEN.
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