The tops of the last two major bitcoin bull markets occurred in December 2017 and November 2021, respectively, a full four-year difference in time, consistent with the historical pattern of bitcoin output halving every four years of speculation;
the top prices of $19,900 and $69,000, respectively, with a top price difference multiple of about 3.5x, a significant reduction from the two previous bull market tops with a price multiple of 17x;
Looking at the k-line pattern, the 2021 bull market clearly shows a double-headed pattern, which is more complex than the single-headed pattern of the 2017 bull market.
The hype law of halving output every 4 years will not be explored in this article, only as a setting, where we only explore the top k-line pattern, as well as the reasons and logic of the formation of the price multiple difference at the apex, in order to provide us with more operational possibilities in a possible 2025 bull market top.
We all know that more and more of the general public and investment institutions are becoming familiar with bitcoin, recognizing it, and thus speculating on it, but the entry money cannot be quantified but only estimated, and it should be an indisputable fact that the entry manipulation money is increasing geometrically every four years. According to CMC data: Bitcoin's peak market cap was $13.6 billion in November 2013, $320 billion in April 2017, and $1.24 trillion in November 2021. In the capital markets, when the market cap of a speculative target is not large, the speculative approach generally appears to be a wave of flow, and when the market cap of a speculative target grows by one or several orders of magnitude. The amount of capital required for speculation will grow by one or several orders of magnitude accordingly, the special feature is that with the large increase in the number of people and capital involved, the market forces in the market will be far greater than before the views and differences. Following this logic, we can deduce that the double-headed pattern at the top of the bull market in 2021 is formed under the above scenario.
On April 14, 2021, after more than 6 months of continuous pull-up, bitcoin price formed the first head (left peak) of $65,000, pull-up range of about 6 times, if counted from the bottom of the 312 epidemic plunge, the absolute increase of nearly 17 times (65,000/3900); at this time the market forces on the late trend of serious disagreement, the market capitalization of the top 30 coins BNB / XRP/DOGE/LTC/TRX/UNI/LINK and other coin majors withdrew from the battlefield, making the bull market price peak of these coins fixed in mid-April; while the coin majors represented by Bitcoin Ether braved the big task, after nearly 7 months of washing and pulling up, creating a second head (right peak) of $69,000 on November 9. The large-cap coins that followed BTC/ETH to new highs during this period were ADA/MATIC/SOL/DOT/SHIB/AVAX/ATOM/FTM, and these strong varieties accounted for a much smaller market share than the batch that topped out in April, indicating that in the second half of 2021, market capital was scarce compared to 2017, and this topping out wave in November was the end of a strong wave. This includes bitcoin and ethereum.
Morphologically the 2021 bull market head pattern is more complex than the single top pattern of 2017, which led to a large number of market veterans making errors in judgment, including Jiang X'er and others. According to the logical reasoning of the formation of the two bull market head patterns, the 2025 bull market top pattern will be more complex, and it is really not an easy task for everyone to dig gold in the capital market.
With the speculation of the subject volume of the great increase, its price elasticity will be greatly weakened, that is, the price of the rise and fall will be greatly weakened. Because the volume that the market value increased, before the amount of money to push prices up is not enough to push prices up again by the same margin, in order to have the same rate of increase, you must ensure that the funds to promote timely and full entry, can not be full or timely can not reach the goal, and in a certain period of time, the possibility of these two conditions are met at the same time is not necessarily 100%, which is what led to the market trends show up and down The reason for the ups and downs, while leading to a weakened price elasticity.
From the historical data, the difference between bitcoin price in 2013 and the previous bull market peak price is 36 times (1163/32); the difference between 2013 and 2017 is 17 times (19900/1163); the difference between 2021 and 2017 is 3.5 times (69000/19900), as the volume of each big bull market in bitcoin grows geometrically, the The price elasticity of bitcoin is gradually weakening, according to the above logic, the price difference between 2025 and 2021 will not be higher than 3.5 times, simply because of the "high" price of individual bitcoins. The median is 1.75x, or $120,000, the integer is $138,000, and the integer is $207,000.
The above are all hindsight analysis, purely the personal observation of a blockchain fan, inevitably there are subjective assumptions, hope to correct the discussion
[link] [comments]
source https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/13bzjns/exploring_bitcoin_bull_market_top_patterns_and/
Comments
Post a Comment