Here is a model that will solve this problem simply. It's an exponentially decaying reorg model. After block depth 5, the "value" of blocks decays based on which block is "seen first" as of block 1 according to each nodes' version of consensus.
With a decay value of 0.5, it would take a 1024 block deep attack to force a 10 block reorg. It gets exponentially more expensive from there.
The spreadsheet should be viewable with the link. Comments are allowed.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qh_FZwQFJu7bWIjti7PPdmwQoz-RW1_uDMXzDZqH-do/edit#gid=0
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/9zayy0/improved_bch_deep_reorg_protection_model/
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