Since I had this argument with my brother the other night, I might as well share my research.
The Scale of the Bitcoin Network Effect:
Check the current hashrate of block generation here.
Let's use 150 Exo-hash/s for simplicity, and that's probably not even what the existing mining pool is capable of. Understand the scale of exo vs. terra, etc.
The most powerful ASIC cards right now can perform 18 Terrahash/s.
This means there are at least 8 million ASIC cards out there, right now, churning away for blocks. There are probably far, far more than that, since not all of them will be top-of-the-line 18 Th/s.
For someone to buy and control over 1/2 of the existing miners would require locating them, negotiating a buy-out price that is larger than what they earn, and retaining their operational knowledge and capability long enough to perform a 51% attack.
Just based on the cost of the cards alone, that would be about a $12 billion investment. Add in the other costs: powerful cooling equipment, warehouse space, and operation costs, and that price at least triples. Call it $36 billion.
You can't hide an operation like this; everyone will see it coming.
To start from scratch, and manufacture enough ASIC cards and set up operational facilities that can exceed the current bitcoin hashrate by over 50%, would cost more than twice that: call it $72 billion.
But add in reality and it would cost much, much more than that, because a new, centralized operation would require new sources of power - that would be about 7 GWh of needed electricity - the equivalent of 7 new nuclear power plants. Let's say about $35 billion in Solar, since even Nation-States can't easily build nuclear any more.
Just from the time required and production involved: You can't hide an operation like this; everyone will see it coming.
To take over 51% forcibly would require a Nation-State where over 50% of the mining capability is located; and currently only China has that, and it would take a Nation-State willing to do that, which China currently is not.
But even if they were, they would need to locate all of the miners within their borders, coordinate a simultaneous attack so that no mining location can inform other locations, and they would have to do so without damaging the equipment or operation. This is a tall, tall order, even for a tyrannical mind-control state like China.
Even China couldn't hide an operation like that; everyone will see it coming.
If you see it coming, there are ways to prevent it from happening, and there is enough investment in bitcoin where certain entities would absolutely take steps to do so. For example, to counter the highly improbable Chinese take over would only require only a 10% increase in mining capability elsewhere; pricey, but far less of an investment than the initial effort to create a 51% attack. Hell, mining companies in China are already taking steps to move their mines OUT of China, so the effort is already underway from within.
And then, on top of all that, the villainous entity would have to have a reason to launch a 51% double-spend attack with their ridiculous investment that everyone saw them do; which will be both mostly fruitless (financially, compared to the investment), as well as survivable by the network - as many shitcoins who have actually been 51% attacked have proven.
So, I never want to hear another "What if" question about Bitcoin double-spending; it won't ever happen. I hope writing this was worth wasting an hour of my Saturday morning.
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