By following the money, one discovers some startling possibilities...
Bitmain is holding about 600m usd of BCH, about 150m usd of BTC, about 100m usd of LTC, some dash, and next to no ethereum. They are selling almost all of their mined BTC for BCH. They clearly support bch, and jihan himself said at a conference when asked if mining BTC was just a short term profit play, he said "yes, exactly."
So if they really wanted to pump their BCH bags for the IPO, why wouldnt they continue mining BTC with almost all of their sha256 hashpower (which is believed to be over 40% of the BTC network - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/bitmain-nears-51-network-hash-rate-why-matters-and-why-it-doesnt/) until just before the november fork, and then, after the latest difficulty adjustment, suddenly dump a huge portion of their BTC on exchanges to bid up BCH, and simultaneously flip all their hash power over to BCH and leave the BTC chain in high difficulty for the next 2016 blocks, without their hash, causing blocks to slow down well beyond 10 minutes per block, but instead 20 or 30 minutes per block on average, or more. The sell pressure of BTC that they create by dumping the majority of their BTC at once would make BCH much more profitable to mine, and other miners would quickly switch over too, causing the BTC blocks to slow even more, causing more miners to switch to BCH. The 2016 blocks would take months instead of just 2 weeks, and an emergency fork for BTC would be impossible because the lightning network transactions that didnt settle yet on chain would all be deleted and lost. Probably many others would panic sell their BTC as confirmation times would become longer and longer and the fear sets in, switching their BTC for BCH, LTC, DASH, ETH, etc..
Bitmain would not only appreciate the profitability of the their company exponentially, but also attract massive demand for their IPO, and also wipe out any chance of bitcoin sv becoming a majority hash chain and effectively kill it immediately. They could then go even further as to begin selling a portion of their suddenly inflated LTC and Dash holdings to bid up BCH even more.
They could easily have manufactured / be manufacturing trns of thousands of sha256 miners that are sitting somewhere, ready to push up BTC chain difficulty and then suddenly all switch over to BCH. There is no telling how much hash power they are capable of, but it is gauranteed that they will use their financial leverage and hash power resources to perform as successfully as possible.
Over the span of a single day, probably around mid november, suddenly BCH could become the majority hashpower chain, and bitmain would suddenly become wildly profitable because of their bch holdings, and attract herds of investors to have possibly the largest IPO in history.
Now, can people in the community please play the devils advocate and point out reasons why bitmain wouldnt want to do something like this, or why a plan this shrewd wouldnt be possible to carry out?
[link] [comments]
source https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/9bscvr/the_november_hashening/
No comments:
Post a Comment