Drawing on Taleb's idea of the Dictatorship of the Minority - this post does the math on how much more adoption we need for Bitcoin to have a viable intransigent minority - a force that can tip the scales toward mass adoption.
For most observed complex systems, the minority contingent required to flip a population to comply with their intransigent view is in the 3 – 4% range. With a U.S. population of 325 million, 3% is 10 million.
A fintech fund that’s been in the Bitcoin space since 2012 recently ran intense analysis resulting in the best estimate I’ve seen for Bitcoin ownership. Just 7 million people globally are storing $100 of value or more in the Bitcoin protocol. For round numbers, let’s assume half of those people are in the U.S., and that one-seventh of those are above a more significant threshold like $2500. That’s just 500,000 U.S. citizens with a meaningful amount of Bitcoin. And of those, what percentage actually understand and care about Bitcoin to the point where they would fight for it? Let’s be generous and say 20%.
There are approximately 100,000 Bitcoiners in the United States. This means that just to get to “intransigent minority” levels, we need a 100x increase. This is why adoption dominates all other priorities for Bitcoin.
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