(Mathematically provable) Lightning Network needs 2 million years to open channels on Bitcoin.

(Mathematically provable) Lightning Network needs 2 million years to open channels on Bitcoin.

// I posted the same thing on r/Bitcoin but I am also posting it here since the other one might get censored...

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1 MB blocks are not enough for the Lightning Network. 2 MILLION YEARS years are needed just to open the channels.

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The size of a transaction opening a Lightning channel is :

weight = 500 + 172 * num-outputs + 224

The smallest possible size is ~900 B.

A single 1MB block can handle ~1165 of these transactions.

At the moment there are 7.6 BLN people in the world. How many days are needed for each one of them to open a channel?

(7'600'000'000 / 1163) * 6 * 24

The needed days are 941014617.36

Converted to years: 2'576'358 years are needed for every person on earth to open 1 lightning channel once.

2 MILLION YEARS !!!!!!

(And that is only if Bitcoin is Not used for Anything else other than opening channels. Only Openings ! For these 2 MLN years closing channels, sending bitcoin or doing anything else whatsoever is halted.)

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I don't see any error with my calculation, but even if there is an error, how big is the difference? 10 times? 100 times? Even if I made an error of 1000 times, it would still take more than Your Entire Lifetime for every person to open a lightning channel.

Is this the future of money? Is this what you call revolution?

submitted by /u/siko1991
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/96ngpl/mathematically_provable_lightning_network_needs_2/