(Mathematically provable) Lightning Network needs 124 years to open channels on BTC.

(Mathematically provable) Lightning Network needs 124 years to open channels on Bitcoin.

This post is a clone of the same post in r/Bitcoin.
The other one might get censored but this one should be alright.

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1 MB blocks are not enough for the Lightning Network.

125 years are needed just to open the channels.

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The first time I wrote this post, I made a pretty big calculation mistake.
Big thanks to u/pwuille who noticed it and explained it to me.
I deleted my previous post by myself, because the error was simply too big.
Now I have calculated the duration properly and... it is still an enormous number.
The post is once again here.

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The size of a transaction opening a Lightning channel is :

weight = 500 + 172 * num-outputs + 224

The smallest possible size is ~900 B.

A single 1MB block can handle ~1165 of these transactions.

In a single day, the channels that can be opened are:

TX-Per-Day = 1165 * 6 * 24
TX-Per-Day = 167760

167760 looks like a big number, but…

At the moment there are 7.6 BLN people in the world. How many days are needed for each one of them to open a channel?

people / channels-per-day
7600000000 / 167760

The needed days are

45302 days

Converted to years:
124 years are needed for every person on earth to open 1 lightning channel once.

124 YEARS
More than 1 century !!

And that is only if Bitcoin is Not used for Anything else other than opening channels. Only Openings !
For these 124 years, closing channels, sending bitcoin or doing anything else whatsoever is halted.

What if people want to close these channels too?
What if people want to add more BTC to their Lightning Nodes?

124 years for opening.
124 years for putting more BTC on the Lightning Nodes.
124 years for closing.

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Even if you say that Bitcoin is a luxury good and only the richest 1% of the world should use it, people would still need over 1 year to open their channels.
Why would rich people of the west choose to wait 1 year, when there are alts that can be used right now?

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Second layer solutions only work if what they are based on works too.
Lightning Network can not fix Bitcoin Scaling, if Bitcoin can’t even scale enough for lightning.

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Is this the future of money?
Is this what you call revolution?

submitted by /u/siko1991
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/96ntig/mathematically_provable_lightning_network_needs/