For the last weeks I've read a lot of BCH drama on this reddit and now I think that BCH will not survive Novembers's fork because in all given scenarios the BCH blockchain will split into 2 or more blockchains:
* BCH ABC - will be supported only by nodes using the latest ABC client,
* BCH X - will be supported by all nodes using the BU and XT clients,
* BCH SV - will be supported only by nodes using the latest SV client.
The real issue with the November's fork is not that CTOR is added to the blocks but that the new ABC client will not longer support TTOR (the current sort order) which means that the ABC client will no longer be compatible with BU, XT and even SV clients.
In other words the CTOR dispute is just a smokescreen while the real prize is which new blockchain will manage to keep the BCH moniker and all the advantages resulting from it (existing user base, exchanges support and so on).
Regardless of foul play from any actors the possible outcomes are (ordered by likelihood):
Case 1: BCH ABC wins. That will result in a blockchain where Bitmain will easily control more than 70% of the hashrate and Bitcoin ABC will become BCH's de facto Blockstream.
Case 2: BCH X wins. The value of BCH will plunge because Bitmain/ABC will fork anyway and there is a big chance that the chain will end up like Bitcoin Gold (51% attack at some point).
Case 3. BCH SV wins. There is a small probability for this to happen because the number of SV nodes is insignificant.
Case 4. Nobody wins. Most exchanges will delist BCH and each blockchain will have to grow from scratch. This might happen anyway on some exchanges.
In the end, it really doesn't matter who wins because the resulting blockchain will be weaker than the current blockchain. That's like certain.
Now, please tell me why I'm wrong and everything will be alright.
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source https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/9g0vpv/bch_novembers_fork_outcomes/
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