Lets start off by saying I have called a lot of the dips back in 2016-2020 just check my posts on here and bitcointalk. I know this might dip, and hell we might even see 10,500-11K again. There is just too many forces at work for this not to go a lot higher though.
#1 is you have Greyscale and other companies picking up huge amounts of bitcoin almost double even what the miners are able to produce per block. Simply put the supply is dwindling and the upward pressure will be too strong at some point. The miners tend to sell some of their rewards, but they are not selling all.
#2 The dollar is in a really bad situation here. If people are noticing the main correlation of where bitcoin price goes it lies in the strength/weakness of the dollar. With 28 trillion in debt I am not sure how we make it out of this hole. I don't think you will see it completely collapse, however the printing presses are really going full tilt which inflation is under control right now, but for how long ? One of the major currencies Dollar, Yen, Euro, or Yuan will come close to collapsing in the next few years. Fiat can only go for so long before it needs a hard re-set.
#3 Mining rewards were halved. I know this was months ago, but not having double the bitcoin being dumped is a huge advantage. The bitcoin is in strong hands / hodlers.
#3 the Defi game has changed the landscape. More and more people are going to jump on the Defi bandwagon and get their bitcoins wrapped or use Blockfi, Aave ect. In the short term these can be used to short bitcoin, but it's already creating a wave of buying so people can get the yield. This has more advantages on upward price movements as it will control the tempo. On the other side of this however is in a year or two one of these will blow up taking everyone's btc with them so be careful.
#4 On August 1st we had a sell off where they pushed the bid down from 12k to 10,500 in 15 minutes on massive sell orders and some stop loss selling. Each tumble like that is getting more and more expensive. These pushes are to scoop up the derivatives they buy before the major sell offs . This has been a ongoing trend in bitcoin from even the early years (not the derivatives side). As time goes on and there are less and less coins these are getting way more expensive to manipulate it on the short side. That's why they did the dump in such a short time frame, because the longer the dump is going to cost even more money.
Overall I can really see this taking off again soon after the consolidation. I also believe we take out the ATH here in a few months.
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