This is an entirely hypothetical scenario where the price of btc really does go to the moon, or even beyond in a manner similar to PlanB's stock to flow model.
Phase 1, bitcoin continues to rise in price from its current level of about $12,000. Some in the investing industry take notice and move into btc as a reserve asset, but so far bitcoin continues to remain an asset few are thinking about and fewer are investing in.
Phase 2, the price of bitcoin has risen to $50,000 and what was once one or two corporations investing is now a handful. Bitcoin is now in the news fairly regularly and CNBC now displays a ticker. A few more corporations are investing and the Robin Hood crowd is starting to really take notice. The DXY has dropped from the low 90's to the high 80's. Congress finally passed another round of stimulus and even more people are beginning to seriously discuss UBI as both parties want to do whatever it takes to get into office.
Phase 3, a modest UBI was finally passed subject to yearly congressional renewal. At first, everyone is extremely happy and the economy begins to boom. Stocks are making all time highs again. Covid restrictions begin to greatly ease and the economy is on the mend. Inflation is modest when using the official statistics and nobody is too worried. Perhaps the fans of MMT were right all along.
Phase 4, bitcoin continues to rise. Countries quietly and sometimes not so quietly grumble about both the level of debt the US has, the falling strength of the dollar, and the US's ability to control sovereign nations via the use of the dollar and sanctions. North Korea announces it is going to start mining and accruing bitcoin. The world laughs.
Phase 5, more companies are beginning to move into bitcoin and and price moves about $100,000. The market cap is now 2 trillion and about a thrid of the market cap of gold. Several additional small countries make public that they are mining bitcoin and strategically accruing it at a national level. The DXY begins to inch closer to 80.
Phase 6, the DXY drops below 80. Several small countries announce they are going to being to lower their holdings of dollar denominated treasuries in an effort to diversify risk. Several fortune 500 companies announce they are going to diversify into bitcoin as well. The price of bitcoin quickly rises to $200,000.
Phase 7, China announces that it will no longer hold US treasuries. At first, this seems of no consequence because they had been lowering their holdings for years. The Bank of Japan announces it will continue to buy US treasuries. Many see this as a means of Japan to assure its national safety and the protection of the US. The DXY continues to slowly fall and is now in the high 70's.
Phase 8, several countries now announce that they will allow the use of bitcoin for international trade as it is a perfect medium of exchange between countries. Additionally, many countries are now accruing bitcoin and gold for their national reserves. Bitcoin passes $750,000.
Phase 9, the DXY falls below 75. Countries where the population was holding dollars now see that it has lost a quarter of its value. In a panic they all rush to the only obvious alternative which is bitcoin. The ability to use the lightning network makes it very inexpensive to buy and sell.
Phase 10, the cost of all imports have doubled in the recent months. Everyone is blaming everyone else. Rioting has continued to be a nightly occurrence and has moved into the suburbs as there is little left in the cities to take.
Phase 11, the US blames China for the fall of the dollar and claims they committed an act of war. The US begins to quietly strategically mine bitcoin and to purchase bitcoin as a reserve asset. Talk abounds about another confiscation like FDR did in the 30's.
Phase 12, hundreds of bitcoin millionaires leave the US and acquire passports in other nations. Many are willing to provide a passport if you are willing to maintain a deposit with them of 0.5 btc in one of the local banks.
Phase 13, the US announces that all citizens must trade in 1/2 of their bitcoin holdings in exchange for the current market price of US dollars. People with money on the exchanges and in custodial banks have it taken automatically. Talk circulates about going after people that have their bitcoin in hardware wallets.
Phase 14, the US dollar continues to fall and loses a half of its value again with respect to btc in the last month. Bitcoin now flees the exchanges and banks in an effort to prevent another possibility of a confiscation.
Phase 15, the US has a bank holiday and announces both a digital currency and a peg to bitcoin at a rate of 10 satoshies to 1 dollar. Severe austerity is announced.
...to be continued.
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